Panthers at Lightning 0-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Florida Panthers

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸2

FinalTV TNT, CBC·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Florida Panthers 2-0. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Patrick Maroon's goal at 6:16 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.2 to 4.0; shots on goal were FLA 49, TBL 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 49 of 49 (1.000), 4.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (49 saves, 1.000), 2. Patrick Maroon (1 G), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (24 saves, .960).

Three stars

★
A. Vasilevskiy49 saves, 1.000
★★
P. Maroon1 G
★★★
S. Bobrovsky24 saves, .960

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	018	016	015	049
TBL	03	012	211	226

Scoring

2 goals

3rd period

P. Maroon(2)
Z. Bogosian (1)
tip-inxG 0.11win prob +28 pts
0-1
6:16
O. Palat(4)EN
A. Cirelli (1)
wristxG 0.95win prob +4 pts
0-2
19:37

Penalties

8 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

9:26Anthony Cirelli · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Sergei Bobrovsky2 min
18:35Nikita Kucherov · Slashingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

2nd

1:56Carter Verhaeghe · Cross checkingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
15:40Aaron Ekblad · Interferencedrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

6:32Aleksander Barkov · High stickingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
11:26MacKenzie Weegar · Cross checkingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
17:30Ondrej Palat · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TBL

100%

Biggest swing: Patrick Maroon, 3rd 6:16 — TBL 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 4.2 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

0 G · 4.0 xG · 64 att TBL

2 G · 4.2 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.00 G
All situations: 1 G4.2; 2.30 G
Even strength: 1 G2.3; 1.30 G
Power play: 0 G1.0; 0.40 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

60%40%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.89 – 3.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

49
Shots on goal: 26; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 0/3
Power play: 0/4; 8
Penalty minutes: 6; 41
Hits: 29; 9
Blocked shots: 18; 5
Giveaways: 2; 4
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Florida Panthers skaters
Skater	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
5A. EkbladD	-1	5	0.45	2	1	2	—	26:20
16A. BarkovC	-1	2	0.09	1	1	2	41	21:25
42G. ForslingD	-1	2	0.04	3	0	0	—	21:13
13S. ReinhartC	-1	5	0.61	1	0	0	50	21:03
11J. HuberdeauL	-1	3	0.51	0	1	0	—	20:58
28C. GirouxR	-1	9	0.56	2	0	0	46	19:37
52M. WeegarD	-1	5	0.15	4	1	2	—	19:10
7R. GudasD	0	2	0.18	9	0	0	—	18:09
23C. VerhaegheC	0	3	0.35	1	0	2	0	18:05
9S. BennettC	-1	6	0.42	3	1	0	67	16:51
62B. MontourD	0	2	0.07	2	2	0	—	15:28
8B. ChiarotD	0	2	0.09	5	0	0	—	14:24
27E. LuostarinenC	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	38	13:36
15A. LundellC	0	1	0.12	1	1	0	0	11:50
98M. MaminC	0	0	0.02	1	0	0	0	10:56
70P. HornqvistR	-1	2	0.28	0	0	0	—	10:40
55N. AcciariC	-1	0	0.00	4	0	0	0	07:08
19J. ThorntonC	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	06:18

Florida Panthers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)	25	24	1	.960	3.27	+2.27	58:49

Series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score