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Panthers at Lightning
NHL

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV TNT, SN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Florida Panthers 5-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Erik Cernak's goal at 2:54 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.9 to 3.3; shots on goal were FLA 35, TBL 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 31 of 34 (.912); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 35 (.971), 2.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34 saves, .971), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 3 A), 3. Ryan McDonagh (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy34 saves, .971
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    R. McDonagh1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA18012015135
TBLTBL113213210536

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    C. Perry(5)
    R. McDonagh (3), N. Kucherov (9)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    13:21
  2. FLA
    S. Reinhart(3)PPG
    J. Huberdeau (4), A. Barkov (5)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    16:07

2nd period

  1. TBL
    E. Cernak(1)
    R. Colton (3), O. Palat (4)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    2:54
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(3)
    N. Kucherov (10), V. Hedman (8)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    10:23

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(4)EN
    N. Paul (4)
    wristxG 0.96win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    16:06
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(4)EN
    N. Kucherov (11), M. Sergachev (4)
    wristxG 0.54
    1-5
    17:51

Penalties

FLA 4 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:06FLASam Bennett · Holdingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 15:29TBLBrandon Hagel · Cross checkingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min
  • 20:00FLAPatric Hornqvist · Cross checkingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

2nd

  • 6:37TBLVictor Hedman · Interferencedrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min
  • 17:56TBLserved by P. Maroon · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalFLA goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Erik Cernak, 2nd 2:54 — TBL 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.96S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.54A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.37N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.24A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.22S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.16O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.14C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.14B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.11R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.10N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.09O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.09P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.08C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.08A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.07A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.06C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.06E. Cernak · Goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.05C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL5 G · 4.9 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTBL
3.31 G
All situations
3 G4.9
2.40 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.91 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA54%46%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.26 – 3.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTBL
35
Shots on goal
36
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
45
Hits
33
10
Blocked shots
19
5
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5A. EkbladD000-330.22410—25:34
11J. HuberdeauL011-310.07110—22:36
52M. WeegarD000-140.17400—22:28
13S. ReinhartC101-240.48010022:15
42G. ForslingD000-220.08300—21:42
16A. BarkovC011-460.522105021:41
8B. ChiarotD000-110.01320—17:33
28C. GirouxR000-310.001006416:41
23C. VerhaegheC000-110.15300016:29
9S. BennettC000-100.034025416:18
62B. MontourD000010.05100—14:11
98M. MaminC000-160.84400013:46
10A. DuclairL000000.09110—13:43
27E. LuostarinenC000-100.004105013:32
70P. HornqvistR000-230.51202—13:07
7R. GudasD000-120.06510—11:27
55N. AcciariC000-100.002107508:56
94R. LombergL000000.00100—05:17
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)34313.9123.06+0.0658:30

Series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).