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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Ottawa Senators
4
Final/OTTV NHLN, SN·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 5-4 in overtime, Mark Giordano scoring at 3:26. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Giordano's goal at 3:26 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.2 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 41, OTT 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Erik Kallgren stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.9 goals below expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mark Giordano (1 G, 2 A), 2. Mitch Marner (2 G), 3. Tim Stützle (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Giordano1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR01531111312541
OTTOTT261141702429

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(19)
    B. Tkachuk (32), M. Del Zotto (10)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    14:14
  2. OTT
    M. Del Zotto(3)
    C. Brown (28), J. Norris (18)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    15:25

2nd period

  1. TOR
    K. Clifford(1)
    J. Holl (18), M. Giordano (22)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    2:57
  2. OTT
    D. Gambrell(3)
    A. Watson (5), E. Brannstrom (12)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    10:03
  3. TOR
    M. Bunting(23)
    M. Giordano (23)
    tip-inxG 0.33win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    11:21
  4. TOR
    M. Marner(32)
    T. Brodie (21)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    18:33

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(20)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.23win prob +28 pts
    3-4
    6:10
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(33)
    M. Bunting (38), A. Matthews (44)
    tip-inxG 0.25win prob +31 pts
    4-4
    10:06

Overtime

  1. TOR
    M. Giordano(8)
    W. Nylander (42), J. Tavares (47)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    3:26

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:29OTTBrady Tkachuk · Cross checkingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 11:39OTTNikita Zaitsev · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 18:33TORWilliam Nylander · Interferencedrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Mark Giordano, OT 3:26 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.24T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.23D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.18T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.17B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.16B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.11D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.07D. Gambrell · Goal · xG 0.06J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.06N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.06J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.06A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.05T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.02M. Del Zotto · Goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.01N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.00T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.00N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.1 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
4.25 G
All situations
4 G2.1
3.85 G
Even strength
4 G1.9
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR80%20%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.06 – 2.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
41
Shots on goal
29
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
29
11
Blocked shots
16
10
Giveaways
17
1
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000-160.27130—25:42
34A. MatthewsC011+330.391105923:49
16M. MarnerR202+230.49010—23:09
55M. GiordanoD123+330.13220—21:29
78T. BrodieD011020.03120—19:47
37T. LiljegrenD000+100.05200—19:46
91J. TavaresC011010.060207019:01
58M. BuntingL112+381.24100—18:51
88W. NylanderR011-130.42002—18:27
46I. LyubushkinD000-210.02400—18:07
3J. HollD011020.12200—16:22
65I. MikheyevR000-130.29200—16:14
15A. KerfootC000-110.21000016:10
64D. KampfC000-210.010001715:57
47P. EngvallL000-220.2700010014:30
19J. SpezzaC000+110.09000007:21
11C. BlackwellC000000.001005007:04
43K. CliffordL101010.08000—06:32
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50E. Kallgren(W)29254.8622.12-1.8863:26

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).