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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Ottawa Senators
▸3
FinalTV TSN5, TSN4·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tierney's goal at 8:31 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 54% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.2 to 4.8; shots on goal were TOR 48, OTT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 46 of 48 (.958), 3.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anton Forsberg (46 saves, .958), 2. Tyler Ennis (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jason Spezza (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Forsberg46 saves, .958
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Ennis1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Spezza1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR01706225248
OTTOTT312014010336

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    C. Tierney(1)
    N. Holden (1), T. Ennis (1)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:31
  2. OTT
    T. Ennis(1)PPG
    T. Chabot (1), T. Stützle (1)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    18:58
  3. OTT
    A. Formenton(1)
    V. Mete (1)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    19:59

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Spezza(1)PPG
    M. Rielly (2), W. Nylander (1)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    3:11
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(2)PPG
    J. Spezza (1), J. Tavares (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    2-3
    8:50

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 12:45OTTLogan Shaw · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 18:08TORWayne Simmonds · Slashingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

2nd

  • 0:37OTTArtem Zub · Hookingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min
  • 6:23TORJake Muzzin · Cross checkingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min

3rd

  • 1:29OTTNikita Zaitsev · Holdingdrawn by David Kampf2 min
  • 3:11OTTJoshua Brown · Cross checkingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 3:42TORPierre Engvall · Hookingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min
  • 8:14OTTChris Tierney · Holdingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 19:18TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Chris Tierney, 1st 8:31 — OTT 54% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.26T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.18T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.18J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.18P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.17S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.16T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.16A. Formenton · Goal · xG 0.15J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.15P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.14S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.14D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.14N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.14T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.13T. Ennis · Goal · xG 0.13D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.12S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.12P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.12C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.12P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.12S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.12C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.11D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.11J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.10T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.09J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.09N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.09T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.08C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.08S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.04V. Mete · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.04A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.03V. Mete · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.02T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Mete · On goal · xG 0.01N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT3 G · 4.8 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
5.22 G
All situations
3 G4.8
3.20 G
Even strength
2 G3.5
1.92 G
Power play
1 G1.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 116 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR53%47%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.97 – 4.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
48
Shots on goal
36
54%
Faceoffs
46%
2/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
22
Hits
24
15
Blocked shots
12
9
Giveaways
19
1
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR000061.38100—24:20
44M. RiellyD011020.28310—23:43
91J. TavaresC011040.501226223:12
88W. NylanderR112-160.77100—22:28
3J. HollD000-210.03340—20:52
78T. BrodieD000020.05020—19:48
8J. MuzzinD000-230.16112—18:34
38R. SandinD000030.30410—16:01
58M. BuntingL000060.75000—15:44
20N. RitchieL000-120.25400—14:40
25O. KaseR000-120.07110—13:42
15A. KerfootC000-100.000004313:29
19J. SpezzaC112030.130005713:19
23T. DermottD000040.23110—13:17
64D. KampfC000-110.082006912:24
47P. EngvallL000-100.000123312:20
24W. SimmondsR000030.17012—08:37
18M. AmadioR000000.00000—08:15
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Mrazek(L)26233.8853.66+0.6640:00
36J. Campbell101001.0001.15+1.1519:27

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).