Senators at Maple Leafs 1-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Ottawa Senators

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸3

FinalTV SN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Bunting's goal at 7:57 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 80% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.9 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 21, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Jack Campbell stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Bunting (1 G), 2. Alexander Kerfoot (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jack Campbell (20 saves, .952).

Three stars

★
M. Bunting1 G
★★
A. Kerfoot1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. Campbell20 saves, .952

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	06	110	05	121
TOR	28	015	16	329

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

W. Simmonds(1)
R. Sandin (2), T. Dermott (1)
tip-inxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
0-1
2:12
A. Kerfoot(1)
W. Nylander (2)
wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
0-2
8:06

2nd period

J. Norris(1)PPG
D. Batherson (1), T. Ennis (2)
wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
1-2
17:42

3rd period

M. Bunting(1)
A. Kerfoot (1), T. Liljegren (1)
wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
1-3
7:57

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

9:12Pierre Engvall · Slashingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
16:47Thomas Chabot · Cross checkingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min

2nd

7:49Parker Kelly · High stickingdrawn by Jake Muzzin2 min
8:43Nikita Zaitsev · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
17:09Nick Ritchie · Cross checkingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

100%

Biggest swing: Michael Bunting, 3rd 7:57 — TOR 80% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.9 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.7 xG · 36 att TOR

3 G · 2.9 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.71 G
All situations: 3 G2.9; 1.40 G
Even strength: 3 G1.6; 0.31 G
Power play: 0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

35%65%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.72 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 29; 35%
Faceoffs: 65%; 1/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 37
Hits: 29; 22
Blocked shots: 9; 12
Giveaways: 14; 9
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

Ottawa Senators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
72T. ChabotD	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	4	3	2	—	28:13
2A. ZubD	0	0	0	0	1	0.24	3	0	0	—	22:49
18T. StützleC	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	1	3	0	0	20:35
28C. BrownR	0	0	0	-2	1	0.10	0	0	0	33	20:11
19D. BathersonR	0	1	1	0	1	0.18	1	1	0	—	18:56
9J. NorrisC	1	0	1	0	3	0.23	2	1	0	32	18:39
12S. PintoC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.18	0	0	0	25	18:12
98V. MeteD	0	0	0	-3	1	0.02	1	2	0	—	17:37
5N. HoldenD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	2	0	—	17:21
22N. ZaitsevD	0	0	0	-3	1	0.02	4	2	2	—	15:55
3J. BrownD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	5	5	0	—	15:42
71C. TierneyC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	1	2	0	40	15:16
21N. PaulL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	1	0	0	—	13:24
10A. FormentonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	2	0	0	—	13:17
63T. EnnisR	0	1	1	-1	2	0.14	2	0	0	—	13:17
13Z. SanfordL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	3	1	0	—	13:14
45P. KellyC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	2	0	07:51
20L. ShawR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	80	05:54

Ottawa Senators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31A. Forsberg(L)	29	26	3	.897	2.54	-0.46	57:29

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score