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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Florida Panthers
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, BSFL·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Panthers came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Bennett's goal at 19:22 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 52% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.5 to 1.7; shots on goal were BUF 22, FLA 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 39 of 43 (.907); Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sam Bennett (1 G), 2. Claude Giroux (1 G, 1 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Bennett1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    C. Giroux1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF3120307322
FLAFLA113217113443

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    V. Olofsson(18)PPG
    P. Krebs (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    6:27
  2. FLA
    C. Giroux(20)PPG
    J. Huberdeau (77), S. Reinhart (43)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    8:25
  3. BUF
    M. Pysyk(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    8:45
  4. BUF
    J. Skinner(30)
    T. Thompson (26)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    15:35

2nd period

  1. FLA
    P. Hornqvist(11)
    B. Montour (20), E. Luostarinen (13)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    9:30
  2. FLA
    S. Reinhart(27)PPG
    A. Barkov (43), C. Giroux (33)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    14:20

3rd period

  1. FLA
    S. Bennett(27)
    A. Barkov (44), B. Montour (21)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +47 pts
    3-4
    19:22

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·FLA 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:28FLASam Bennett · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 7:50BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min

2nd

  • 12:45BUFJeff Skinner · Interferencedrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 17:57FLABen Chiarot · Slashingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

3rd

  • 0:50FLASam Bennett · Cross checkingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 6:06FLAMason Marchment · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 20:00FLASam Bennett · Cross checkingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Bennett, 3rd 19:22 — FLA 52% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.17B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.16A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.16C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.16A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.16A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.16S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.15C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.15P. Lindbohm · On goal · xG 0.14R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.13S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.13E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.12C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.10A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.10A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.09C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.08A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.08P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.08B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.06A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.06C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.06P. Hornqvist · Goal · xG 0.06B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.06C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.06C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.04B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.03P. Lindbohm · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.02P. Lindbohm · Missed · xG 0.02R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA4 G · 3.5 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
1.73 G
All situations
4 G3.5
0.82 G
Even strength
2 G2.8
0.81 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF19%81%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 3.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
22
Shots on goal
43
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/4
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
20
Hits
22
13
Blocked shots
13
17
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-130.11230—25:22
10H. JokiharjuD000-110.00400—23:29
37C. MittelstadtC000+100.040105518:08
21K. OkposoR000020.38210—17:29
71V. OlofssonL101+160.47100—17:07
13M. PysykD101+110.02010—17:03
23M. SamuelssonD000+110.08410—16:45
89A. TuchR000-110.00120—16:43
20C. EakinC000000.000206415:54
72T. ThompsonC011-110.041024215:53
24D. CozensC000020.230004515:35
33C. MillerD000010.02210—15:17
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.00000014:30
78J. BrysonD000000.00000—14:29
53J. SkinnerL101-130.25102—14:04
74R. AsplundC000+100.00000013:53
19P. KrebsC011000.04000013:51
29V. HinostrozaC000000.00210012:44
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(L)43394.9073.55-0.4559:34

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).