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Panthers at Sabres
NHL

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV MSG-B, BSFL·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The Sabres scored first; the Panthers answered. The Panthers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anton Lundell's goal at 15:55 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were FLA 40, BUF 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Spencer Knight stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.7 goals below expected; Dustin Tokarski stopped 35 of 40 (.875), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Huberdeau (1 G), 2. Anthony Duclair (2 G), 3. Kyle Okposo (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Duclair2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA0932229540
BUFBUF11008211329

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(18)
    M. Samuelsson (7), C. Eakin (8)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    17:13

2nd period

  1. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(24)
    C. Giroux (30)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    6:18
  2. FLA
    A. Lundell(15)
    B. Chiarot (14), M. Marchment (25)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +22 pts
    2-1
    15:55
  3. FLA
    A. Duclair(27)
    G. Forsling (25), M. Weegar (31)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    17:01

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Duclair(28)
    A. Barkov (38), C. Verhaeghe (30)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +8 pts
    4-1
    0:57
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(28)PPG
    C. Mittelstadt (10), A. Tuch (22)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +4 pts
    4-2
    8:25
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(31)PPG
    J. Skinner (22), C. Mittelstadt (11)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +12 pts
    4-3
    10:19
  4. FLA
    M. Weegar(7)PPG
    C. Giroux (31), A. Barkov (39)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +1 pts
    5-3
    18:25

Penalties

FLA 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

2nd

  • 10:17BUFAlex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min

3rd

  • 7:25FLARobert Hagg · Holdingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 9:20FLAAnthony Duclair · Slashingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 17:02BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min
  • 18:04BUFMattias Samuelsson · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalFLA goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Anton Lundell, 2nd 15:55 — FLA 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.21T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.18V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.17V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.15A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.13R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.10H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.07R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.07K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.06K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.03R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.00J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.3 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsBUF
3.65 G
All situations
3 G2.3
3.04 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.61 G
Power play
2 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA71%29%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.55 – 2.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsBUF
40
Shots on goal
29
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/3
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
28
Hits
12
8
Blocked shots
6
10
Giveaways
9
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
52M. WeegarD112+220.19220—24:24
42G. ForslingD011+250.26020—22:22
16A. BarkovC022+120.191006920:55
13S. ReinhartC000020.08100020:31
62B. MontourD000030.04100—19:07
11J. HuberdeauL101+120.39010—17:16
17M. MarchmentL011030.45100—17:12
18R. HaggD000+100.00312—17:09
28C. GirouxR022+110.322005017:03
8B. ChiarotD011030.06100—16:48
7R. GudasD000+110.00810—16:31
15A. LundellC101+120.111001815:17
10A. DuclairL202+220.25102—13:10
94R. LombergL000020.03200—13:02
9S. BennettC000+130.341005012:52
23C. VerhaegheC011+240.58200012:16
27E. LuostarinenC000010.050003811:05
19J. ThorntonC000020.2711010011:01
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30S. Knight(W)29263.8972.28-0.7260:00

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).