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Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV ESPN+, NBCSWA·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-3. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Carlson's goal at 6:58 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 2.4 to 1.3; shots on goal were WSH 22, PHI 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 1.7 goals below expected; Brian Elliott stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Carlson (1 G), 2. Alex Ovechkin (1 G), 3. Sean Couturier (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Carlson1 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin1 G
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    S. Couturier1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH2102517522
PHIPHI11108214333

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    8:37
  2. PHI
    snapxG 0.11win prob +10 pts
    1-1
    11:14
  3. WSH
    snapxG 0.20win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    13:10

2nd period

  1. WSH
    snapxG 0.21win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    6:58
  2. WSH
    wristxG 0.21win prob +9 pts
    4-1
    17:33

3rd period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.04win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    1:43
  2. PHI
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    4-3
    10:45
  3. WSH
    N. Dowd(5)EN
    wristxG 0.38win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:32

Penalties

WSH 13 PIM·PHI 13 PIM

1st

  • 1:31PHITravis Sanheim · Hookingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
  • 10:31WSHBrenden Dillon · Interferencedrawn by Joel Farabee2 min
  • 17:15WSHGarnet Hathaway · Fightingdrawn by Andy Andreoff5 min
  • 17:15PHIAndy Andreoff · Fightingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway5 min

2nd

  • 1:50PHITravis Konecny · Trippingdrawn by Nick Jensen2 min
  • 20:00WSHZdeno Chara · High stickingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min
  • 20:00PHITravis Konecny · Slashingdrawn by Zdeno Chara2 min

3rd

  • 10:58PHIClaude Giroux · Slashingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min
  • 10:58WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Cross checkingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 12:43WSHserved by A. Ovechkin · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalWSH goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: John Carlson, 2nd 6:58 — WSH 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.13T. Konecny · Goal · xG 0.11J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.09J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.09S. Laughton · Goal · xG 0.08S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.06T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.06I. Provorov · Goal · xG 0.04C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.03C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.03S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.03K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.03K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.03E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.02J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.02O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.02T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.01E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.01O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.01J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Braun · On goal · xG 0.01J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.01J. Braun · On goal · xG 0.01N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI3 G · 1.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsPHI
2.44 G
All situations
3 G1.3
1.64 G
Even strength
2 G1.0
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH67%33%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 1.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsPHI
22
Shots on goal
33
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/2
Power play
1/2
13
Penalty minutes
13
25
Hits
24
8
Blocked shots
8
6
Giveaways
13
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77T. OshieR000020.111204022:32
74J. CarlsonD101+350.26000—21:48
4B. DillonD000+310.01612—21:26
19N. BackstromC000000.122005621:20
8A. OvechkinL101+270.81200—21:14
2J. SchultzD000-110.03000—20:37
9D. OrlovD000-100.00310—18:17
92E. KuznetsovC011+110.030122917:41
26N. DowdC202+230.822005017:37
33Z. CharaD011+100.00302—17:23
3N. JensenD000+100.00210—15:55
13J. VranaL011000.00000—14:20
73C. ShearyL101010.20000—13:48
10D. SprongR011+300.00000—13:42
21G. HathawayR011+210.04405—12:26
62C. HagelinL000+100.00000—11:50
14R. PanikR000-100.00020—10:25
34J. SiegenthalerD000000.00000—00:28
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Samsonov(W)33303.9091.27-1.7359:59

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).