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Stars at Lightning
NHL

Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
0
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV ESPN+, BSSW+·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Dallas Stars 3-0. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Blake Coleman's goal at 8:27 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 76% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.6 to 1.5; shots on goal were DAL 20, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 25 of 27 (.926); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 20 (1.000), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (20 saves, 1.000), 2. Ondrej Palat (1 G), 3. Blake Coleman (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy20 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    TBL
    O. Palat1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Coleman1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0601202020
TBLTBL11402212328

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(15)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    14:41

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Coleman(12)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.30win prob +18 pts
    0-2
    8:27
  2. TBL
    B. Point(22)EN
    A. Vasilevskiy (4)
    wristxG 0.58
    0-3
    18:39

Penalties

DAL 2 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 6:25DALJamie Benn · Interferencedrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min

2nd

  • 1:20TBLLuke Schenn · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

3rd

  • 7:47TBLAnthony Cirelli · High stickingdrawn by Jamie Oleksiak2 min
  • 8:27DALJohn Klingberg · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by Blake Coleman0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalDAL goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Blake Coleman, 3rd 8:27 — TBL 76% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Goal · xG 0.58B. Coleman · Goal · xG 0.31A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.19O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.15B. Point · Missed · xG 0.13B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.10B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.09M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.08B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.08B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.07R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.05E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.05T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 2.6 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsTBL
1.50 G
All situations
2 G2.6
1.50 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 62 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL39%61%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.52 – 2.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsTBL
20
Shots on goal
28
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
30
Hits
33
8
Blocked shots
16
0
Giveaways
4
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000-220.05240—24:58
2J. OleksiakD000-120.19510—23:01
3J. KlingbergD000-120.18100—21:36
23E. LindellD000030.07120—20:21
14J. BennL000020.193028018:51
21J. RobertsonL000010.06100—18:19
24R. HintzC000020.153006018:17
18J. DickinsonC000-110.135003318:04
34D. GurianovR000-100.05000—17:49
16J. PavelskiC000000.002004016:06
5A. SekeraD000000.01000—15:38
12R. FaksaC000-200.002006414:51
15B. ComeauL000-210.01200—13:37
44J. HanleyD000000.03200—12:54
11A. CoglianoC000-110.11100012:22
25J. KivirantaL000020.20000—11:37
13M. PysykD000010.09010—11:08
64T. KeroC000000.000005010:25
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)27252.9262.07+0.0758:06

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).