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Stars at Lightning
NHL

Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
FinalTV BSSW+, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Dallas Stars 6-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Killorn's goal at 16:39 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 56% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.6 to 1.6; shots on goal were DAL 22, TBL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 14 of 18 (.778), 1.9 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 22 (.909). Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 2. Alex Killorn (1 G, 1 A), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (20 saves, .909).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Killorn1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy20 saves, .909

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL1604112222
TBLTBL142937620

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(8)
    A. Killorn (17)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:14
  2. DAL
    T. Seguin(2)
    J. Pavelski (24), J. Robertson (27)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    19:33

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Killorn(15)PPG
    Y. Gourde (18), B. Point (25)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    16:39
  2. TBL
    B. Point(23)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    19:46

3rd period

  1. DAL
    A. Sekera(3)
    J. Hanley (7), R. Hintz (26)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    10:44
  2. TBL
    E. Cernak(5)
    B. Goodrow (12), B. Coleman (17)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    2-4
    11:34
  3. TBL
    R. Colton(9)EN
    M. Joseph (7), E. Cernak (12)
    wristxG 0.87win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    16:47
  4. TBL
    M. Sergachev(4)EN
    E. Cernak (13), T. Johnson (14)
    slapxG 0.67
    2-6
    19:07

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:51DALserved by J. Kiviranta · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 10:12TBLMikhail Sergachev · Illegal check to headdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min
  • 16:18DALBlake Comeau · Holding the stickdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

2nd

  • 12:03DALDenis Gurianov · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:21DALJamie Benn · High stickingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

3rd

  • 2:02TBLMikhail Sergachev · High stickingdrawn by Denis Gurianov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalDAL goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Killorn, 2nd 16:39 — TBL 56% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.87M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.67T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.27B. Point · Goal · xG 0.23A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.18A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · Missed · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.09A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.09M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.08R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.08E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.08T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.07R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.07O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.06B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.04E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03D. Savard · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03D. Savard · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02B. Point · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL6 G · 3.6 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsTBL
1.62 G
All situations
4 G3.6
1.32 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 63 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL40%60%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.60 – 2.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsTBL
22
Shots on goal
20
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
29
Hits
26
18
Blocked shots
9
0
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000-310.03300—23:49
3J. KlingbergD000-310.05220—21:48
23E. LindellD000-100.00340—19:49
2J. OleksiakD000-220.11110—19:09
44J. HanleyD011+120.03120—18:36
91T. SeguinC101020.214005018:00
21J. RobertsonL011-120.34100—17:50
16J. PavelskiC011-120.18020017:18
14J. BennL000-210.021025017:12
12R. FaksaC000-210.132103316:35
24R. HintzC011-120.270202916:13
5A. SekeraD101+210.02420—14:49
15B. ComeauL000-200.003025014:46
18J. DickinsonC000000.001107113:45
11A. CoglianoC000-200.00000012:33
34D. GurianovR000020.10102—11:40
25J. KivirantaL000020.03100—11:26
64T. KeroC000010.07110009:03
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)18144.7782.07-1.9358:21

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).