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Blues at Avalanche
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-MW·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the St. Louis Blues 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Avalanche led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cale Makar's goal at 16:26 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.6 to 2.0; shots on goal were STL 24, COL 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 7 of 11 (.636), 2.8 goals below expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Andre Burakovsky (2 G), 2. Philipp Grubauer (21 saves, .875), 3. Cale Makar (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    A. Burakovsky2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    P. Grubauer21 saves, .875
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL1511118324
COLCOL143717518

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(28)
    S. Girard (25), M. Rantanen (17)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:41
  2. STL
    D. Perron(21)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (33), A. Pietrangelo (27)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    18:04

2nd period

  1. STL
    O. Sundqvist(11)
    R. O'Reilly (34), Z. Sanford (9)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    1:06
  2. COL
    A. Burakovsky(14)
    T. Jost (9), I. Cole (17)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    7:48
  3. COL
    C. Makar(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +21 pts
    2-3
    16:26
  4. COL
    A. Burakovsky(15)
    N. Zadorov (5), I. Cole (18)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    16:48

3rd period

  1. STL
    A. Pietrangelo(13)
    D. Perron (28), Z. Sanford (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    3-4
    7:23
  2. COL
    G. Landeskog(13)EN
    P. Bellemare (11), N. MacKinnon (42)
    wristxG 0.81win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    19:58

Penalties

STL 8 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 16:54COLNazem Kadri · Hookingdrawn by Jaden Schwartz2 min

2nd

  • 3:41COLCale Makar · Slashingdrawn by Zachary Sanford2 min
  • 4:50STLJaden Schwartz · Hookingdrawn by Matt Calvert2 min
  • 9:13STLDavid Perron · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Graves2 min
  • 13:24COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 18:07STLJaden Schwartz · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 19:00STLIvan Barbashev · High stickingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min

3rd

  • 4:33COLNikita Zadorov · Holdingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalSTL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Cale Makar, 2nd 16:26 — COL 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.80N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.22G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.20A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.19G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.18A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.09A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.04V. Kamenev · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.02R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.02R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.01V. Kamenev · On goal · xG 0.01M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.00V. Kamenev · On goal · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 2.6 xG · 27 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsCOL
2.03 G
All situations
4 G2.6
1.52 G
Even strength
4 G1.5
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL53%47%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.99 – 1.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsCOL
24
Shots on goal
18
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/4
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
19
13
Blocked shots
11
9
Giveaways
7
14
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27A. PietrangeloD112060.19020—24:58
90R. O'ReillyC022+130.311206324:21
72J. FaulkD000-220.13130—23:50
19J. BouwmeesterD000-100.02100—22:45
57D. PerronL112020.23102—21:17
17J. SchwartzL000-310.11204—20:08
10B. SchennC000-310.130106719:18
20A. SteenL000-200.00000—17:42
29V. DunnD000-110.02200—16:00
18R. ThomasC000-200.030006715:26
41R. BortuzzoD000-100.00510—14:46
70O. SundqvistC101-210.200104314:35
12Z. SanfordL022+220.23310—14:20
21T. BozakC000030.371003314:17
4C. GunnarssonD000020.01020—11:45
49I. BarbashevL000-100.00102—08:58
61J. de la RoseL000-100.00200—05:28
28M. MacEachernL000000.00000—04:00
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(L)1174.6361.25-2.7536:48
34J. Allen6601.0000.57+0.5721:18

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).