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Blues at Avalanche
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸7
FinalTV NBCSN·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the St. Louis Blues 7-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 19:49 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.8 to 2.0; shots on goal were STL 27, COL 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 34 of 41 (.829), 3.2 goals below expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 3 A), 2. Samuel Girard (4 A), 3. Nazem Kadri (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    S. Girard4 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. Kadri2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL0821118327
COLCOL19322311742

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(25)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.29win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:49

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(14)
    S. Girard (16), M. Calvert (12)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    3:20
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(12)PPG
    C. Makar (22), N. MacKinnon (35)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    7:40
  3. STL
    R. Thomas(6)
    A. Pietrangelo (22), T. Bozak (11)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    13:42
  4. STL
    A. Pietrangelo(11)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (27)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    16:19
  5. COL
    C. Makar(9)PPG
    A. Burakovsky (12), N. MacKinnon (36)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    2-4
    19:44

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(15)
    S. Girard (17), V. Nichushkin (8)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +5 pts
    2-5
    6:56
  2. COL
    J. Compher(5)PPG
    G. Landeskog (7), S. Girard (18)
    wristxG 0.28
    2-6
    12:05
  3. COL
    J. Donskoi(14)
    N. MacKinnon (37), S. Girard (19)
    slapxG 0.03
    2-7
    14:19
  4. STL
    R. Thomas(7)
    J. Schwartz (22)
    wristxG 0.22
    3-7
    16:14

Penalties

STL 10 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:10COLJoonas Donskoi · High stickingdrawn by Colton Parayko2 min
  • 13:50COLMatt Nieto · Hookingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min
  • 16:18STLBrayden Schenn · Slashingdrawn by Joonas Donskoi2 min

2nd

  • 5:41STLTyler Bozak · Interferencedrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 6:36STLAlex Pietrangelo · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 16:15COLSamuel Girard · Interferencedrawn by Zachary Sanford2 min
  • 18:59STLJay Bouwmeester · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min

3rd

  • 11:22STLJaden Schwartz · Hookingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalSTL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 1st 19:49 — COL 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.29J. Compher · Goal · xG 0.28M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.22A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.18J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.18T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.16T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.13C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.12J. Donskoi · Missed · xG 0.12G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.11J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.10C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.10J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.10J. Donskoi · Missed · xG 0.10C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.09P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.06T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.05J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.04A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.04S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.03A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.03P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02J. Donskoi · Goal · xG 0.02R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.01J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.01M. Nieto · Missed · xG 0.01
COL7 G · 3.8 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsCOL
2.03 G
All situations
7 G3.8
1.52 G
Even strength
4 G2.6
0.51 G
Power play
3 G1.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL21%79%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.93 – 3.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsCOL
27
Shots on goal
42
39%
Faceoffs
61%
1/3
Power play
3/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
14
8
Blocked shots
13
9
Giveaways
11
12
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55C. ParaykoD000040.03310—22:33
19J. BouwmeesterD000+120.03012—21:54
27A. PietrangeloD112-130.15012—21:51
90R. O'ReillyC011-220.270005519:49
72J. FaulkD000-400.01020—18:29
10B. SchennC000-120.152023018:17
57D. PerronL000-210.17000—17:12
17J. SchwartzL011-100.00002—17:03
29V. DunnD000010.05010—16:35
41R. BortuzzoD000020.03110—15:58
70O. SundqvistC000-100.001002514:59
20A. SteenL000+120.33100—14:37
18R. ThomasC202+140.522006714:25
49I. BarbashevL000-100.002002514:17
21T. BozakC011+100.000025714:05
12Z. SanfordL000-110.02200—12:04
61J. de la RoseL000000.00210—10:02
28M. MacEachernL000030.19000—08:23
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(L)41347.8293.78-3.2254:19
34J. Allen1101.0000.06+0.0605:41

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).