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Predators at Oilers
NHL

Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Edmonton Oilers
▸4
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-TN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Nashville Predators 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Oilers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Archibald's goal at 9:09 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were NSH 32, EDM 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Leon Draisaitl (2 G, 1 A), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G), 3. Mike Smith (30 saves, .938).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    M. Smith30 saves, .938

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH21201208232
EDMEDM21311019432

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(13)
    L. Draisaitl (46)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    9:01
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(16)
    M. Duchene (21)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    10:42
  3. NSH
    C. Blackwell(2)
    N. Bonino (12), Y. Weber (2)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    15:41
  4. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(26)PPG
    A. Chiasson (10), C. McDavid (47)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    2-2
    19:42

2nd period

  1. EDM
    J. Archibald(5)
    C. McDavid (48), O. Klefbom (23)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    9:09

3rd period

  1. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(27)EN
    C. McDavid (49)
    backhandxG 0.59win prob +1 pts
    2-4
    19:11

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse · Trippingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 18:51NSHYannick Weber · Hookingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min

2nd

  • 17:52NSHMikael Granlund · High stickingdrawn by Gaetan Haas2 min
  • 18:13EDMJames Neal · Slashingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min

3rd

  • 8:26EDMKailer Yamamoto · Interferencedrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 11:42NSHRocco Grimaldi · Interferencedrawn by Joakim Nygard2 min
  • 18:37NSHserved by C. Jarnkrok · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalNSH goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Josh Archibald, 2nd 9:09 — EDM 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.59A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.33L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.27C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.27L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.21L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.18R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.17O. Klefbom · Missed · xG 0.16P. Russell · On goal · xG 0.15R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.15A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.14R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.14S. Gagner · Missed · xG 0.14J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.13J. Archibald · Goal · xG 0.12S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.10P. Russell · On goal · xG 0.10C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.10J. Nygard · Missed · xG 0.07L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.06A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.05R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.05R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.04C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04P. Russell · Missed · xG 0.04E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.03O. Klefbom · Missed · xG 0.03O. Klefbom · Missed · xG 0.02A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01O. Klefbom · Missed · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.01C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.01O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.01J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.01O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.01G. Haas · On goal · xG 0.01L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM4 G · 4.1 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsEDM
2.82 G
All situations
3 G4.1
2.12 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.60 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH39%61%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.75 – 3.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsEDM
32
Shots on goal
32
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/3
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
24
18
Blocked shots
15
8
Giveaways
9
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000+220.18240—28:11
14M. EkholmD000-220.05310—25:48
57D. FabbroD000-210.01050—19:30
92R. JohansenC000-110.202006318:07
7Y. WeberD011+230.07012—17:57
19C. JarnkrokC000020.0511010017:05
33V. ArvidssonL000020.02110—17:02
9F. ForsbergL101080.99110—16:50
64M. GranlundC000000.03002015:57
8K. TurrisC000+100.002105015:54
95M. DucheneC011+110.171006414:50
42C. BlackwellC101+110.14210014:09
13N. BoninoC011010.200105814:05
5D. HamhuisD000000.00300—12:57
32Y. TreninC000010.15300012:02
23R. GrimaldiR000-130.08112—11:54
15C. SmithC000-120.34000011:29
45A. CarrierD000020.05100—11:28
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)31283.9033.53+0.5359:45

Season series

EDM leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).