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Flames at Avalanche
NHL

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Final/OTTV NBCSN, ALT·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Calgary Flames 3-2 in overtime, Mikko Rantanen scoring at 10:23. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Flames led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikko Rantanen's goal at 10:23 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.9 to 2.2; shots on goal were CGY 37, COL 52. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 49 of 52 (.942), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 35 of 37 (.946). Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (2 G), 2. J.T. Compher (1 G), 3. Philipp Grubauer (35 saves, .946).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    J. Compher1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    P. Grubauer35 saves, .946

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CGYCGY0131121705237
COLCOL01501721416352

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. CGY
    E. Lindholm(1)PPG
    M. Giordano (2)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:25

3rd period

  1. CGY
    D. Ryan(1)
    J. Välimäki (1), M. Tkachuk (1)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    6:58
  2. COL
    J. Compher(2)
    M. Calvert (1), M. Nieto (2)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    8:10
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(2)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (2), T. Barrie (2)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +37 pts
    2-2
    17:10

Overtime

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(3)
    C. Soderberg (1), G. Landeskog (3)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +48 pts
    2-3
    10:23

Penalties

CGY 10 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 7:21COLAlexander Kerfoot · Roughingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min
  • 7:21CGYElias Lindholm · Roughingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 17:27CGYTJ Brodie · Slashingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 18:59COLserved by T. Jost · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 3:19COLErik Johnson · High stickingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min
  • 6:08CGYElias Lindholm · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 16:39CGYMikael Backlund · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 17:23CGYNoah Hanifin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

OT

  • 8:01COLIan Cole · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCGY goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen, OT 10:23 — COL 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Compher · Goal · xG 0.25M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.16G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.15T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.15C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.14C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.14T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.14M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.11G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.11C. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.11C. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.10C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.09E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.06C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.05P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.04C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.01S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.01J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 3.9 xG · 65 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsCOL
2.22 G
All situations
3 G3.9
2.01 G
Even strength
2 G3.4
0.21 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 110 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY23%77%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.14 – 3.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsCOL
37
Shots on goal
52
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
34
Hits
46
19
Blocked shots
16
2
Giveaways
6
7
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24T. HamonicD000-220.08240—27:49
5M. GiordanoD011030.10140—27:27
55N. HanifinD000-220.02402—26:16
13J. GaudreauL000020.29100—23:41
7T. BrodieD000010.03022—23:27
23S. MonahanC000020.101206722:32
28E. LindholmC101030.224144220:24
11M. BacklundC000-130.244123020:13
19M. TkachukL011+120.32000—19:20
67M. FrolikR000+120.12000—17:19
8J. VälimäkiD011+120.03300—17:15
4R. AnderssonD000+170.22100—17:06
10D. RyanC101+120.220105015:04
77M. JankowskiL000-100.000006913:51
18J. NealL000-210.01020—13:45
88A. MangiapaneL000010.02210—13:03
21G. HathawayR000010.15610—12:29
93S. BennettC000-210.04500012:23
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(L)52493.9423.95+0.9570:23

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).