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Flames at Avalanche
NHL

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV CNBC, ALT·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Calgary Flames 6-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 8:26 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 56% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 5.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were CGY 29, COL 56. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 91% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 50 of 56 (.893), 0.9 goals below expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Cale Makar (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY0811219229
COLCOL321219116656

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(2)PPG
    T. Barrie (1), J. Compher (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    8:26
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)PPG
    M. Rantanen (3), G. Landeskog (2)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    13:34
  3. COL
    C. Makar(1)
    N. MacKinnon (1), A. Kerfoot (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    16:02

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Nieto(2)SHG
    I. Cole (2), E. Johnson (1)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +5 pts
    0-4
    7:51
  2. CGY
    S. Bennett(1)PPG
    R. Andersson (2), M. Backlund (2)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +3 pts
    1-4
    8:34
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(1)
    C. Wilson (1)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +3 pts
    1-5
    12:58

3rd period

  1. COL
    E. Johnson(1)
    I. Cole (3), M. Nieto (1)
    wristxG 0.28
    1-6
    0:54
  2. CGY
    T. Brodie(1)
    N. Hanifin (1), S. Monahan (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10
    2-6
    1:09

Penalties

CGY 50 PIM·COL 36 PIM

1st

  • 3:52COLIan Cole · Cross checkingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min
  • 7:11CGYOscar Fantenberg · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 7:11CGYserved by M. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:03CGYGarnet Hathaway · Holdingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min

2nd

  • 6:54COLSven Andrighetto · Roughingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 16:16CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 18:40COLIan Cole · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 18:55CGYMikael Backlund · High sticking double minordrawn by Matt Calvert4 min
  • 19:53COLGabriel Landeskog · Trippingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

3rd

  • 4:14CGYOscar Fantenberg · Hookingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 5:34COLColin Wilson · Trippingdrawn by Derek Ryan2 min
  • 7:12CGYSam Bennett · Roughingdrawn by Matt Calvert2 min
  • 7:12COLMatt Calvert · Roughingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 7:12CGYSam Bennett · Misconductdrawn by Matt Calvert10 min
  • 7:12COLMatt Calvert · Misconductdrawn by Sam Bennett10 min
  • 11:06CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 11:06CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 11:06COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 11:06CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Misconductdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog10 min
  • 15:16COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 15:16COLNikita Zadorov · Misconductdrawn by Garnet Hathaway10 min
  • 15:16CGYGarnet Hathaway · Misconductdrawn by Nikita Zadorov10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCGY goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 1st 8:26 — COL 56% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.38M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.32E. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.28G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.24G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.23T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.19M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.18C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.16C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.15M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.13T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.12G. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.11E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.11C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.10G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.10G. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.09C. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.09C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.09G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.09I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.07C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.07M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.05M. Nieto · Missed · xG 0.05T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Nieto · Goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Nieto · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01G. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.01J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.00C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 5.1 xG · 65 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsCOL
1.82 G
All situations
6 G5.1
1.51 G
Even strength
3 G3.1
0.31 G
Power play
2 G1.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY9%91%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.76 – 4.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsCOL
29
Shots on goal
56
61%
Faceoffs
39%
1/6
Power play
2/8
50
Penalty minutes
36
43
Hits
36
15
Blocked shots
20
4
Giveaways
6
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD000-230.25310—25:50
13J. GaudreauL000-330.32100—21:09
24T. HamonicD000-120.05050—20:37
28E. LindholmC000-300.014106720:22
7T. BrodieD101020.10130—19:28
55N. HanifinD011-110.04400—18:29
23S. MonahanC011-130.271005318:19
4R. AnderssonD011010.02120—17:47
10D. RyanC000000.001107514:18
18J. NealL000030.22700—14:08
11M. BacklundC011-130.132144413:51
77M. JankowskiL000010.021107313:48
3O. FantenbergD000030.03404—13:14
19M. TkachukL000-310.043016—11:39
21G. HathawayR000010.153012—11:32
67M. FrolikR000-110.01200—10:48
93S. BennettC101+110.0930123310:30
88A. MangiapaneL000000.04200—10:25
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(L)56506.8935.07-0.9360:00

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).