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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Avalanche scored first; the Predators answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 6:08 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were COL 27, NSH 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 2.2 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (2 G), 2. Austin Watson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Craig Smith (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    A. Watson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Smith1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11116010227
NSHNSH010211310531

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. Zadorov(1)
    M. Rantanen (1), N. MacKinnon (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    6:36

2nd period

  1. NSH
    A. Watson(1)
    C. Sissons (1), R. Johansen (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    3:16
  2. COL
    B. Comeau(1)
    C. Soderberg (1), M. Nieto (1)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    4:51
  3. NSH
    C. Smith(1)PPG
    R. Johansen (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    8:50

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(1)
    R. Josi (1), V. Arvidsson (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    6:08
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    2-4
    12:10
  3. NSH
    C. Sissons(1)EN
    A. Watson (1)
    backhandxG 0.85
    2-5
    18:03

Penalties

COL 16 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 16:38NSHMattias Ekholm · Holdingdrawn by Sven Andrighetto2 min
  • 18:19NSHAustin Watson · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

2nd

  • 8:40COLNathan MacKinnon · Slashingdrawn by P.K. Subban2 min

3rd

  • 7:58COLMark Barberio · Slashingdrawn by Miikka Salomaki2 min
  • 12:22NSHKyle Turris · Slashingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 20:00COLNikita Zadorov · Cross checkingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 20:00COLNikita Zadorov · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, 3rd 6:08 — NSH 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.85A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.49K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.23R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.21C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.10C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.09N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.09R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.09A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.05R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.03K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Salomaki · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.02M. Fisher · Missed · xG 0.01A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Emelin · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Salomaki · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.01M. Fisher · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 3.1 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
1.92 G
All situations
4 G3.1
1.32 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL51%49%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.85 – 1.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
27
Shots on goal
31
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/3
Power play
1/2
16
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
36
17
Blocked shots
18
7
Giveaways
9
3
Takeaways
18

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4T. BarrieD000-200.04310—23:57
92G. LandeskogL000-230.451007122:25
49S. GirardD000040.17010—22:07
16N. ZadorovD101-120.023312—21:11
29N. MacKinnonC011-230.380022721:06
96M. RantanenR011-230.27210—21:02
12P. NemethD000020.02000—19:07
44M. BarberioD000010.03022—17:30
17T. JostC000-210.11100017:06
34C. SoderbergC011000.001106716:42
10S. AndrighettoR000000.00110—14:46
14B. ComeauL101030.18400—14:04
83M. NietoL011+110.05220—13:32
13A. KerfootC000000.001006712:47
37J. CompherL000-110.080108612:27
57G. BourqueL000010.01300—10:06
5D. WarsofskyD000000.01020—09:32
22C. WilsonC000020.08220009:09
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(L)30264.8671.78-2.2259:14

Series

NSH leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).