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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
4
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV CNBC, NBC·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-4. The Avalanche scored first; the Predators answered. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Viktor Arvidsson's goal at 12:36 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.0 to 2.1; shots on goal were COL 30, NSH 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.0 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Austin Watson (1 G), 2. Viktor Arvidsson (1 G), 3. Kevin Fiala (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    A. Watson1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    V. Arvidsson1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    K. Fiala1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11118211430
NSHNSH09310214533

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    G. Bourque(1)
    J. Compher (1), C. Wilson (1)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:34

2nd period

  1. NSH
    K. Fiala(1)PPG
    C. Sissons (2), K. Turris (1)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:01
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(1)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.09win prob +19 pts
    1-2
    12:36
  3. NSH
    R. Johansen(1)
    M. Ekholm (1), P. Subban (1)
    tip-inxG 0.33win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    16:32
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(1)
    N. Zadorov (1)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    17:08

3rd period

  1. NSH
    A. Watson(2)
    K. Fiala (1), N. Bonino (1)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    7:16
  2. COL
    G. Landeskog(1)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (2), T. Barrie (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    9:14
  3. NSH
    R. Hartman(1)EN
    P. Subban (2), M. Ekholm (2)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    18:51
  4. COL
    A. Kerfoot(1)
    G. Landeskog (1), T. Barrie (2)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +3 pts
    4-5
    19:24

Penalties

COL 14 PIM·NSH 14 PIM

1st

  • 19:03COLGabriel Landeskog · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min

2nd

  • 3:21NSHMattias Ekholm · Interferencedrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 3:37COLDavid Warsofsky · Holdingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 7:33COLserved by C. Wilson · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 10:46NSHRyan Ellis · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 10:46COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 13:44NSHMike Fisher · Hookingdrawn by Carl Soderberg2 min
  • 15:48COLMark Barberio · Interferencedrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 15:48NSHAustin Watson · Embellishmentdrawn by Mark Barberio2 min
  • 19:55COLMatt Nieto · Roughingdrawn by P.K. Subban2 min

3rd

  • 4:07NSHP.K. Subban · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 8:10NSHKyle Turris · Holdingdrawn by Matt Nieto2 min
  • 8:24NSHColton Sissons · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
  • 10:42COLSven Andrighetto · Elbowingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Viktor Arvidsson, 2nd 12:36 — NSH 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hartman · Goal · xG 0.95R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.33V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.24A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.19K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.18K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.18C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.14K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.14N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.12K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.12R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.11A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.09V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.09C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.08M. Fisher · Missed · xG 0.08N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.06P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.05A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04M. Salomaki · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04M. Fisher · Missed · xG 0.03M. Fisher · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.02A. Emelin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.01R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.00P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 4.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
2.14 G
All situations
4 G4.0
1.43 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.71 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL35%65%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.13 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
30
Shots on goal
33
39%
Faceoffs
61%
1/5
Power play
1/5
14
Penalty minutes
14
25
Hits
24
23
Blocked shots
15
8
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
12P. NemethD000-120.04260—25:54
29N. MacKinnonC112060.530101824:58
4T. BarrieD022-340.24210—22:10
44M. BarberioD000-100.00122—21:52
96M. RantanenR000010.17100—20:45
92G. LandeskogL112-150.233142519:30
16N. ZadorovD011+120.03320—19:24
17T. JostC000000.1120010014:39
14B. ComeauL000-120.174003314:22
83M. NietoL000-200.00102—13:40
5D. WarsofskyD000+220.02002—13:27
34C. SoderbergC000000.070104313:15
10S. AndrighettoR000030.18012—11:34
22C. WilsonC011+100.000005011:10
37J. CompherL011+110.080106310:37
13A. KerfootC101-110.120005010:33
15D. SiemensD000000.00250—10:09
57G. BourqueL101+110.16420—09:44
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(L)32284.8752.98-1.0258:19

Series

NSH leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).