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Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues

FinalTV FS-MW, FS-SW·Scottrade Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Dallas Stars 3-0. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colton Parayko's goal at 5:01 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 81% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.2 to 2.6; shots on goal were DAL 29, STL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Kari Lehtonen stopped 24 of 26 (.923); Jake Allen stopped 29 of 29 (1.000), 2.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Allen (29 saves, 1.000), 2. Colton Parayko (1 G), 3. Brayden Schenn (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    J. Allen29 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    STL
    C. Parayko1 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    B. Schenn1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL05012012029
STLSTL11006211327

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    B. Schenn(14)PPG
    wristxG 0.16win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    13:39

3rd period

  1. STL
    slapxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    5:01
  2. STL
    wristxG 0.95
    0-3
    19:12

Penalties

DAL 14 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:55DALMattias Janmark · Slashingdrawn by Jaden Schwartz2 min
  • 12:50DALAlexander Radulov · High stickingdrawn by Jay Bouwmeester2 min
  • 15:59DALGemel Smith · Boardingdrawn by Alex Pietrangelo2 min
  • 16:45DALStephen Johns · Trippingdrawn by Vladimir Sobotka2 min

2nd

  • 1:35DALCurtis McKenzie · High stickingdrawn by Paul Stastny2 min
  • 5:29STLCarl Gunnarsson · Hookingdrawn by Remi Elie2 min
  • 8:05DALRemi Elie · High stickingdrawn by Vladimir Sobotka2 min

3rd

  • 4:01DALBrett Ritchie · High stickingdrawn by Vince Dunn2 min
  • 19:37STLScottie Upshall · Slashingdrawn by Curtis McKenzie2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalDAL goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Colton Parayko, 3rd 5:01 — STL 81% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.95D. Jaskin · On goal · xG 0.21B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.16C. Thorburn · On goal · xG 0.15V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.14V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.13A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.11P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.11P. Berglund · On goal · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.10B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.09P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.07V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.07V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.07P. Berglund · On goal · xG 0.06M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.06C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.05A. Pietrangelo · Missed · xG 0.05V. Sobotka · Missed · xG 0.05J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.05C. Parayko · Goal · xG 0.05B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.04C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.04C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.04P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.04P. Berglund · On goal · xG 0.03V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bouwmeester · On goal · xG 0.02V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.02B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.02P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.01C. Gunnarsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bouwmeester · Missed · xG 0.01A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bouwmeester · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.00C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.00A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.00
STL3 G · 3.2 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsSTL
2.60 G
All situations
2 G3.2
1.60 G
Even strength
0 G1.0
0.80 G
Power play
2 G1.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL58%42%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.59 – 2.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsSTL
29
Shots on goal
27
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
2/7
14
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
18
10
Blocked shots
19
3
Giveaways
2
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. KlingbergD000-110.04000—23:38
91T. SeguinC000-160.530104321:56
23E. LindellD000010.05100—21:41
47A. RadulovR000-110.12112—20:53
2D. HamhuisD000000.00100—20:39
14J. BennL000-150.730006020:03
29G. PaterynD000010.01230—18:41
28S. JohnsD000000.00012—18:15
17D. ShoreC000-110.06010016:39
5J. OleksiakD000010.02320—16:22
12R. FaksaC000010.092006015:43
13M. JanmarkC000020.170125015:04
18T. PitlickC000010.302006714:47
90J. SpezzaC000-110.061005312:31
40R. ElieL000030.11102—10:23
25B. RitchieR000030.26102—08:03
46G. SmithC000000.000027507:17
11C. McKenzieL000010.10102—07:04
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lehtonen(L)26242.9232.20+0.2058:32

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).