NFL Market
Week 2 · book vs exchange
| Game | Book | Exchange | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 DETDetroit Lions BUFBuffalo Bills | -3o51.5 | -3.463% | -4 | -0.4344k |
 CARCarolina Panthers ATLAtlanta Falcons | -1.5o42.5 | —52% | -3 | —15k |
 MINMinnesota Vikings CHIChicago Bears | -3o45.5 | —58% | -3 | —38k |
 PHIPhiladelphia Eagles TENTennessee Titans | +5.5o42.5 | —29% | +7 | —44k |
 PITPittsburgh Steelers NENew England Patriots | -4.5o43.5 | —63% | -7 | —41k |
 GBGreen Bay Packers NYJNew York Jets | +5.5o42.5 | —31% | +6.5 | —7k |
 CINCincinnati Bengals HOUHouston Texans | -2.5o45.5 | —56% | -9.5 | —12k |
 CLECleveland Browns TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | -6.5o42.5 | —74% | -5 | —12k |
 NONew Orleans Saints BALBaltimore Ravens | -7.5o46.5 | —79% | -6 | —17k |
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars DENDenver Broncos | -3o43.5 | —58% | -0.5 | —4k |
 LVLas Vegas Raiders LACLos Angeles Chargers | -9.5o42.5 | —80% | -10.5 | —34k |
 WSHWashington Commanders DALDallas Cowboys | -4.5o51.5 | —67% | -4.5 | —13k |
 SEASeattle Seahawks ARIArizona Cardinals | +10o44.5 | —24% | +9.5 | —24k |
 MIAMiami Dolphins SFSan Francisco 49ers | -10.5o46.5 | —87% | -9 | —61k |
 INDIndianapolis Colts KCKansas City Chiefs | -6.5o47.5 | —72% | -1.5 | —10k |
 NYGNew York Giants LARLos Angeles Rams | -9.5o48.5 | —76% | -8.5 | —45k |
16 of 16 games are quoted on the exchange. Spreads are home-relative — a negative number means the home team is favoured. Gap is the exchange minus the book on the same game: a disagreement between two venues, not a call by us. Model is ours — point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field, fitted on 1,087 games and scored on seasons it never saw. There is no “edge” column because we measured for one and did not find it: against the closing line over a full season our number went 133–133, and the closing line predicted the final margin more accurately than we did.