Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City ChiefsMarket
- Book
- -6.5
- o47.5
- Exchange
- —
- 72% KC
- Volume
- 10k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Kansas City Chiefs is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -1.5
- Chiefs
- Win prob
- 55%
- Chiefs
- Likely range
- -15 to 18
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1550 − 1579 = -1.2 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -0.7 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +1.5 Chiefs
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1579#10
- FPI rank
- #182026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1550#12
- FPI rank
- #72026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Chiefs 1–1- 2025 wk 12Colts at Chiefs20–23Chiefs
- 2022 wk 3Chiefs at Colts17–20Colts
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
21 trades · $213Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 21 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -6.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -6.5 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 43% of the money- Kansas City Chiefs129 @ 0.76$9833×
- Kansas City Chiefs92 @ 0.75$6924×
- Kansas City Chiefs78 @ 0.76$5920×
- Kansas City Chiefs66 @ 0.75$4917×
- Kansas City Chiefs68 @ 0.72$4917×
- Kansas City Chiefs54 @ 0.72$3913×
- Kansas City Chiefs46 @ 0.72$3311×
- Kansas City Chiefs39 @ 0.76$3010×
- Kansas City Chiefs40 @ 0.72$2910×
- Indianapolis Colts92 @ 0.28$269×
- Kansas City Chiefs33 @ 0.75$258×
- Kansas City Chiefs34 @ 0.72$258×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $2.94), largest first, from the last 148 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.71 / 0.72 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.