Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles ChargersMarket
- Book
- -9.5
- o42.5
- Exchange
- —
- 80% LAC
- Volume
- 34k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Los Angeles Chargers is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -10.5
- Chargers
- Win prob
- 79%
- Chargers
- Likely range
- -6 to 27
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1541 − 1219 = +12.9 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +8.3 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +10.5 Chargers
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1219#30
- FPI rank
- #282026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1541#14
- FPI rank
- #42026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 5 meetings
Chargers 4–1- 2025 wk 13Raiders at Chargers14–31Chargers
- 2025 wk 2Chargers at Raiders20–9Chargers
- 2024 wk 18Chargers at Raiders34–20Chargers
- 2024 wk 1Raiders at Chargers10–22Chargers
- 2023 wk 15Chargers at Raiders21–63Raiders
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
17 trades · $195Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 17 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -9.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -9.5 | -1 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 84% of the money- Los Angeles Chargers3,510 @ 0.77$2,703504×
- Los Angeles Chargers3,000 @ 0.79$2,370442×
- Los Angeles Chargers1,545 @ 0.79$1,221228×
- Los Angeles Chargers515 @ 0.79$40776×
- Los Angeles Chargers416 @ 0.79$32961×
- Los Angeles Chargers276 @ 0.77$21240×
- Los Angeles Chargers202 @ 0.80$16130×
- Los Angeles Chargers200 @ 0.79$15830×
- Los Angeles Chargers200 @ 0.79$15830×
- Los Angeles Chargers200 @ 0.77$15429×
- Los Angeles Chargers68 @ 0.77$5210×
- Los Angeles Chargers61 @ 0.81$499×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $5.36), largest first, from the last 194 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.79 / 0.81 · 2¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.