Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay BuccaneersMarket
- Book
- -6.5
- o42.5
- Exchange
- —
- 74% TB
- Volume
- 12k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Tampa Bay Buccaneers is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -4.9
- Buccaneers
- Win prob
- 65%
- Buccaneers
- Likely range
- -12 to 21
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1454 − 1353 = +4.0 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +2.6 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +4.9 Buccaneers
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1353#28
- FPI rank
- #302026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1454#19
- FPI rank
- #172026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Buccaneers 0–1- 2022 wk 12Buccaneers at Browns17–23Browns
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
27 trades · $319Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 27 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -6.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6.5 | -1 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 80% of the money- Tampa Bay Buccaneers2,932 @ 0.73$2,140437×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers2,019 @ 0.73$1,474301×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers333 @ 0.73$24350×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers316 @ 0.73$23147×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers267 @ 0.73$19540×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers134 @ 0.73$9820×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers136 @ 0.72$9820×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers140 @ 0.70$9820×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers138 @ 0.70$9720×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers131 @ 0.73$9620×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers125 @ 0.70$8818×
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers107 @ 0.72$7716×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $4.89), largest first, from the last 157 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.73 / 0.74 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.