Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Washington Commanders
Dallas CowboysMarket
- Book
- -4.5
- o51.5
- Exchange
- —
- 67% DAL
- Volume
- 13k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Dallas Cowboys is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -4.3
- Cowboys
- Win prob
- 63%
- Cowboys
- Likely range
- -12 to 21
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1441 − 1360 = +3.2 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +2.1 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +4.3 Cowboys
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1360#27
- FPI rank
- #222026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1441#20
- FPI rank
- #102026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 5 meetings
Cowboys 4–1- 2025 wk 17Cowboys at Commanders30–23Cowboys
- 2025 wk 7Commanders at Cowboys22–44Cowboys
- 2024 wk 18Commanders at Cowboys23–19Commanders
- 2024 wk 12Cowboys at Commanders34–26Cowboys
- 2023 wk 18Cowboys at Commanders38–10Cowboys
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
86 trades · $1,119Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 86 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -4.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -4.5 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 55% of the money- Dallas Cowboys3,000 @ 0.67$2,010412×
- Dallas Cowboys511 @ 0.67$34270×
- Dallas Cowboys422 @ 0.68$28759×
- Dallas Cowboys296 @ 0.66$19540×
- Dallas Cowboys296 @ 0.66$19540×
- Dallas Cowboys253 @ 0.69$17536×
- Dallas Cowboys200 @ 0.67$13427×
- Dallas Cowboys180 @ 0.67$12125×
- Dallas Cowboys144 @ 0.68$9820×
- Dallas Cowboys144 @ 0.68$9820×
- Dallas Cowboys148 @ 0.66$9820×
- Dallas Cowboys147 @ 0.66$9720×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $4.88), largest first, from the last 370 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.66 / 0.68 · 2¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.