Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
Britton Williams' 36-yard field goal at 10:24 of the second quarter would have put Kennesaw State ahead 9-7 at Wake Forest. He missed it, and he never kicked a…
If you like punts, this was not your night. UNLV outscores Idaho State, 38-31 at Allegiant Stadium. The two sides combined for 69 points, and UNLV had just a l…
Plenty of fans believe certain situations offer a significant edge, home underdogs and huge favorites chief among them. Across thousands of games, every situat…
Logan Bonner's 2021 season is a textbook lesson in how raw volume can fool you. Snap for snap, Bonner was solid but unspectacular. Yet pile up enough snaps and…
The distance between where a team recruits and how it actually plays can be jaw-dropping, and Army and Florida State are the perfect split-screen. Army signed…
Consider UCLA, which went 5-2 in one-score games but 0-5 in all other games. This disparity suggests that their overall record is propped up by close-game vari…
When evaluating a team's or model's performance, it's essential to look beyond the win-loss record. A more nuanced metric is Closing Line Value, which measures…
When you argue about which conference is the best, you have to be clear about what you're actually asking. There's the deepest league, top to bottom, and then…
A handful of teams in 2024 were flat-out better than their records say. Washington is the clearest case. The Huskies finished 5-7 and stayed home for the holid…
The biggest mover on the quarterback leaderboard is Texas's Quinn Ewers. Sort the passers by raw numbers and he sits 35th. But once you give him credit for the…
In betting, the number you really have to beat is the one the market settles on right before kickoff, the last and sharpest price after all the smart money has…
Notre Dame had the first word. Five minutes into the night, Riley Leonard punched it in from a yard out, the Irish sideline roared, and for one quarter under t…
When looking at the 2024 power ratings, it's clear that the top teams are closely bunched, with Ohio State and Notre Dame's ratings differing by only 1.8 point…
Strip away the seeding and the storylines and you're left with a number that almost looks like a shrug: Notre Dame by the thinnest sliver at home, a game as cl…
Here's the catch with Harold Fannin: the raw stats look good, but they don't go as far as you'd think once you look at who Bowling Green is actually playing. P…
When you size up a running back, the real question isn't just how many yards he gains — it's how many of those yards hold up against the defenses actually in f…
Coming in, we made Georgia the better team here by about a touchdown — call it seven points. The oddsmakers barely had Georgia favored at all, more like a one-…
On paper, the bookmakers looked like the ones who blew it. Oregon got beat by 20, even though Vegas made them a small favorite, laying just 2.5 points. But her…
They came to the Bronx with a streak and a plan and a quarterback who runs downhill, and for one quarter Army even looked the part. Then Notre Dame turned Yank…
There are games you win with a haymaker and games you win by the width of a fingernail. Penn State left Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday night having won by…
There is a kind of football game that gets decided by who has the best player on the field, and there is another kind that gets decided by who has the most wil…
For three quarters in Tempe, this was Cam Skattebo's evening and everyone else was just renting space on the field. He scored from three yards in the first qua…
For six minutes, the unbeaten visitors looked like they belonged. Indiana took the opening fight to Ohio Stadium, ground its way to the doorstep, and Ty Son La…
GAINESVILLE — Jaxson Dart threw for 323 yards Saturday night, and he will spend the rest of the season trying to forget every one of them. The numbers on the b…
