2024 · Luck & regression
UCLA is a one score game away from disaster
A team's record in one-score games is mostly luck and regresses next year
The Numbers Room
Ratings & power ·
Consider UCLA, which went 5-2 in one-score games but 0-5 in all other games. This disparity suggests that their overall record is propped up by close-game variance. On the other hand, Virginia Tech had the opposite experience, going 0-5 in one-score games but 6-2 in all other games, indicating that their record understates their true quality.
5-2
UCLA, close
one-score games
0-5
UCLA, else
all other games
0-5
Virginia Tech, close
brutal variance
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