Beating Vegas at the buzzer is nearly impossible

In betting, the number you really have to beat is the one the market settles on right before kickoff, the last and sharpest price after all the smart money has had its say. Outsmarting that number, week after week, is one of the hardest things to do in sports. Against that closing number, our picks went 1316-1306, basically a coin flip. We came out right just over half the time, 50.2%, which is the gap between a fair toss and a slight 51-49 favorite. It's a wash.

So what does that small edge buy you? Ride with our picks and the line tends to move in your favor roughly 53.5% of the time, a touch better than a coin flip. Modest money, then. In betting the little edges are what you have to work with, and this one is a real signal that can sharpen the calls you make. It comes with no guarantee.

A near-even record against the spread still tells you something. We don't have a big edge on that closing number, and we're not wildly off in one direction either, which is what an honest and steady read of these games looks like. Our misses stay small. Stack our point spreads against the market's and ours land just about as close as Vegas does, barely a hair wider. That's playing at the same level as the whole market, which is no small thing.

• Why no edge on the close is honesty
• Line drift you can lean on
• Honest and steady beats claims of crushing the line

Anyone can dress up a win-loss record. Line movement is harder to fake.

Bottom line: our honesty, including our lack of a magic edge on the closing number, is the strength of this operation. Know what we can and can't tell you, and you'll make sharper bets and steer clear of chasing fairy tales. So next time someone waves around a gaudy against-the-spread record, remember how nearly impossible beating that final number is. The small, real tells, like a line quietly drifting your way, are the ones that actually mean something.