Braves at Padres
Last play · Travis d'Arnaud grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Donovan Solano.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 1) — +17% Padres
8Kyle Higashioka homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.0–4
2Kyle Higashioka out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jake Cronenworth scores.0–3
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































