Orioles at Red Sox
Last play · Adley Rutschman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
BAL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Red Sox favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rob Refsnyder homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Rafael Devers scores. (inning 3) — +23% Red Sox
8Tyler O'Neill homers (29) on a line drive to left center field.3–12
8Rob Refsnyder homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.3–11
7Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Anthony Santander. Trevor Story scores. Danny Jansen scores.3–10
7Anthony Santander homers (40) on a fly ball to right center field.3–8
6Rob Refsnyder singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Danny Jansen scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.2–8
6Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a fly ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Romy Gonzalez scores. Connor Wong scores. Danny Jansen to 2nd.2–6
4Anthony Santander walks. Colton Cowser scores. Livan Soto to 3rd. Cedric Mullins to 2nd.2–4
3Tyler O'Neill homers (28) on a fly ball to left center field.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































