Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Wilyer Abreu grounds out to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TB 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 6 – 1 BOS
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 3) — -24% Rays
7Christopher Morel singles on a ground ball to second baseman Vaughn Grissom, deflected by shortstop Trevor Story. Brandon Lowe scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.7–2
6Mickey Gasper strikes out swinging.6–2
5Josh Lowe singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda scores.6–1
5Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Brandon Lowe scores. Junior Caminero to 2nd.4–1
5Junior Caminero singles on a ground ball to pitcher Kutter Crawford. Yandy Díaz scores. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.3–1
3Junior Caminero homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Yandy Díaz scores.2–1
1Triston Casas homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































