Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Richie Palacios lines out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Triston Casas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Vaughn Grissom scores. (inning 3) — +12% Red Sox
5Connor Wong reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop José Caballero. Vaughn Grissom scores. Triston Casas to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop José Caballero.1–3
4Dylan Carlson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Josh Lowe scores. Dylan Carlson to 2nd. Dylan Carlson advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by shortstop Nick Sogard, assist to right fielder Wilyer Abreu to catcher Connor Wong.1–2
3Triston Casas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Vaughn Grissom scores.0–2
3Vaughn Grissom doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jarren Duran scores. Vaughn Grissom to 3rd. Vaughn Grissom advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop José Caballero.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































