Reds at Cubs
Last play · TJ Friedl grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Cody Bellinger.
Win probability
Cubs100%
CIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Amaya out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jake Fraley. Nico Hoerner scores. (inning 5) — +15% Cubs
5Miguel Amaya out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jake Fraley. Nico Hoerner scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































