Astros at Reds
Last play · Yordan Alvarez lines out sharply to center fielder TJ Friedl.
Win probability
Reds100%
HOU 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-165 / +140
Reds favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Santiago Espinal singles on a pop up to right fielder Jason Heyward. Ty France scores. Jake Fraley scores. (inning 5) — +25% Reds
7Yainer Diaz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd.3–5
5Amed Rosario singles on a ground ball to center fielder Chas McCormick. Santiago Espinal scores.2–5
5Santiago Espinal singles on a pop up to right fielder Jason Heyward. Ty France scores. Jake Fraley scores.2–4
3Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Jason Heyward scores. Chas McCormick scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.2–2
1Ty France singles on a ground ball to center fielder Chas McCormick. Elly De La Cruz scores. Tyler Stephenson to 2nd.0–2
1TJ Friedl out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jason Heyward. Jonathan India scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































