Royals at Astros
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. pops out to shortstop Jeremy Peña.
Win probability
Astros100%
KC 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Astros favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez homers (29) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — +19% Astros
8Jeremy Peña singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Jose Altuve scores. Yainer Diaz scores.2–7
8Yainer Diaz doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Mauricio Dubón scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd.2–5
7Bobby Witt Jr. homers (30) on a line drive to left field.2–4
6Yordan Alvarez homers (30) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
6Yuli Gurriel singles on a line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. MJ Melendez scores. Freddy Fermin to 3rd.1–3
4Jon Singleton homers (12) on a line drive to right field. Ben Gamel scores.0–3
4Yordan Alvarez homers (29) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































