Mariners at Astros
Last play · Victor Caratini grounds out, second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Luke Raley.
Win probability
Astros0%
SEA 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 0 HOU
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Victor Robles scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd. (inning 3) — -14% Mariners
9Randy Arozarena hits a ground-rule double (31) on a fly ball to right-center field. Julio Rodríguez scores.6–1
9Julio Rodríguez hits a ground-rule double (17) on a fly ball to left-center field. Victor Robles scores.5–1
8Jason Heyward homers (9) on a line drive to right center field.4–1
8Jorge Polanco doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Jason Heyward. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 3rd.4–0
8Justin Turner out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Meyers. Cal Raleigh scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd.3–0
7Julio Rodríguez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Justin Turner scores. Dylan Moore out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Jake Meyers to third baseman Alex Bregman. J.P. Crawford to 3rd.2–0
3Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Victor Robles scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































