Reds at Twins
Last play · Willi Castro grounds out sharply, second baseman Santiago Espinal to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Twins0%
CIN 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 1 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Twins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +22% Twins
8TJ Friedl singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Spencer Steer scores.8–4
7Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Byron Buxton scores. Willi Castro scores.7–4
7Willi Castro singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Spencer Steer. Trevor Larnach scores. Byron Buxton to 2nd.7–2
7Elly De La Cruz hits a grand slam (24) to right center field. Ty France scores. Santiago Espinal scores. Jonathan India scores.7–1
7Ty France doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Willi Castro. TJ Friedl scores.3–1
7TJ Friedl singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Bailey Ober. Spencer Steer scores.2–1
5Byron Buxton homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
2TJ Friedl homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































