Marlins at Twins
Last play · Jake Burger strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
MIA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 3 – 3 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -200
Twins favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger homers (29) on a fly ball to left field. Xavier Edwards scores. Connor Norby scores. (inning 1) — -28% Marlins
7Carlos Santana doubles (26) on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Carlos Correa scores. Trevor Larnach scores. Royce Lewis scores. Carlos Santana out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Jesús Sánchez to second baseman Otto Lopez to catcher Jhonny Pereda to shortstop Xavier Edwards.3–8
7Carlos Correa doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Christian Vázquez scores.3–5
7Christian Vázquez hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Declan Cronin. Manuel Margot scores. Christian Vázquez to 2nd.3–4
4Byron Buxton homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
3Trevor Larnach singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Willi Castro scores. Edouard Julien scores. Carlos Correa to 2nd.3–2
1Jake Burger homers (29) on a fly ball to left field. Xavier Edwards scores. Connor Norby scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































