Marlins at Pirates
MIA4–
PIT6Last play · Otto Lopez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIA 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 6 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Pirates favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew McCutchen homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. Oneil Cruz scores. (inning 5) — +12% Pirates
9Jake Burger singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jhonny Pereda scores. Javier Sanoja to 2nd.4–6
6Kyle Stowers doubles (8) on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Otto Lopez scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd.3–6
6Jonah Bride out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jake Burger scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.2–6
5Andrew McCutchen homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. Oneil Cruz scores.1–6
5Bryan Reynolds singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Stowers. Jared Triolo scores.1–3
5Jhonny Pereda singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Billy Cook. Kyle Stowers scores. David Hensley to 2nd.1–2
1Joey Bart reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Jake Burger. Bryan Reynolds scores. Andrew McCutchen to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Jake Burger.0–2
1Oneil Cruz grounds out, second baseman Otto Lopez to first baseman David Hensley. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.