Giants at Padres
Last play · Patrick Bailey strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar flies out to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Throwing error by shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald. (inning 1) — +17% Padres
8Manny Machado homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
6Michael Conforto homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
5Manny Machado singles on a fly ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jurickson Profar to 3rd.0–4
1Manny Machado homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
1Jurickson Profar flies out to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Throwing error by shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































