Tigers at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Jackson Merrill scores. Luis Arraez to 2nd.
Win probability
Padres100%
DET 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 5 – 5 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Padres favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 5) — +29% Padres
10Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Jackson Merrill scores. Luis Arraez to 2nd.5–6
5Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.5–5
4Jackson Merrill homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake Cronenworth scores. Xander Bogaerts scores.5–3
4Trey Sweeney homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jace Jung scores.5–0
3Colt Keith singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Matt Vierling scores.3–0
2Dillon Dingler grounds out, shortstop Mason McCoy to first baseman Jake Cronenworth. Spencer Torkelson scores.2–0
1Matt Vierling homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































