Astros at Padres
Last play · Jake Meyers flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
Win probability
Padres100%
HOU 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Padres favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 8) — +17% Padres
8Jurickson Profar homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
8Yordan Alvarez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jose Altuve scores.1–2
4Jackson Merrill homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Manny Machado doubles (29) on a line drive to left fielder Jason Heyward. Jurickson Profar scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































