Astros at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado grounds into a force out, second baseman Grae Kessinger to shortstop Jeremy Peña. Jurickson Profar out at 2nd.
Win probability
Padres0%
HOU 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 0 SD
Astros led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Padres favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill lines out to pitcher Josh Hader. (inning 8) — +32% Padres
10Kyle Tucker singles on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Grae Kessinger scores.4–3
8Jackson Merrill lines out to pitcher Josh Hader.3–3
8Alex Bregman walks. Yordan Alvarez scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. Wild pitch by pitcher Jason Adam.3–2
6Manny Machado homers (27) on a fly ball to left center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–2
4Jeremy Peña grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Donovan Solano. Alex Bregman scores. Jon Singleton to 3rd.2–0
4Jon Singleton doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Kyle Tucker scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































