Astros at Padres
Last play · Alex Bregman flies out to right fielder Brandon Lockridge.
Win probability
Padres100%
HOU 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 0 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Padres favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (28) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 6) — +26% Padres
8Donovan Solano homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.0–4
8Manny Machado homers (29) on a fly ball to left field.0–3
8Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (19) on a line drive to left center field.0–2
6Manny Machado homers (28) on a line drive to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































