Padres at Mariners
Last play · Julio Rodríguez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners0%
SD 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 2 SEA
Padres led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Mariners favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Donovan Solano scores. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 3) — -37% Padres
7J.P. Crawford singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Justin Turner scores. Jorge Polanco to 2nd.7–3
7Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez, deflected by pitcher Austin Voth. Donovan Solano scores. Luis Arraez scores. Jurickson Profar to 3rd.7–2
6Manny Machado homers (26) on a line drive to center field. Jurickson Profar scores.5–2
3Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Donovan Solano scores. Luis Arraez scores.3–2
2Luke Raley homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Cal Raleigh homers (30) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































