Reds at Cardinals
Last play · Jake Fraley grounds out, second baseman Thomas Saggese to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CIN 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 1 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lars Nootbaar out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake Fraley. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 6) — +19% Cardinals
8Masyn Winn reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Thomas Saggese scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd. Michael Siani to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Elly De La Cruz.1–6
8Thomas Saggese singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Lars Nootbaar scores.1–5
7Brendan Donovan homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Thomas Saggese scores.1–4
6Lars Nootbaar out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake Fraley. Masyn Winn scores.1–2
6Jonathan India singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Jake Fraley scores. Santiago Espinal to 2nd.1–1
3Masyn Winn homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































