Cardinals at Blue Jays
Last play · Alejandro Kirk singles on a fly ball to left fielder Brendan Donovan. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Leo Jiménez to 3rd. Will Wagner to 2nd.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
STL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 3 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Thomas Saggese homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — -26% Cardinals
11Alejandro Kirk singles on a fly ball to left fielder Brendan Donovan. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Leo Jiménez to 3rd. Will Wagner to 2nd.3–4
8Thomas Saggese homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
4Alejandro Kirk singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.2–3
4Spencer Horwitz out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brendan Donovan. Nathan Lukes scores.2–2
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (41) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brendan Donovan. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.2–1
1Thomas Saggese grounds into a force out, right fielder Addison Barger to shortstop Ernie Clement. Alec Burleson scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 3rd. Nolan Arenado out at 2nd. Thomas Saggese to 1st.2–0
1Nolan Arenado singles on a fly ball to center fielder Joey Loperfido. Masyn Winn scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd. Paul Goldschmidt to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































