Mets at Blue Jays
Last play · Nathan Lukes flies out to left fielder Brandon Nimmo.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
NYM 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 1 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Lindor homers (31) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 9) — -41% Mets
9Addison Barger singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Daulton Varsho scores.6–2
9Francisco Alvarez homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Brandon Nimmo scores. J.D. Martinez scores.6–1
9Starling Marte out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Eddy Alvarez scores.3–1
9Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Jose Iglesias scores. Eddy Alvarez to 3rd.2–1
9Francisco Lindor homers (31) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
4Davis Schneider grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Mark Vientos. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Ernie Clement out at 3rd. Will Wagner to 2nd. Davis Schneider to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


































