Fresno State vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsCONN
- Q4 2:20CONNDevontae Houston 17 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–19
- Q3 5:18CONNAaron Turner 5 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q3 12:50FRESJordan Mims 1 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)14–6
- Q2 4:51CONNNoe Ruelas 28 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 9:33FRESNikko Remigio 87 Yd Punt Return (Abraham Montano Kick)7–3
- Q1 4:06CONNNoe Ruelas 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FRES played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CONN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassLogan Fife 16/22, 157 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJordan Mims 15 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJalen Moreno-Cropper 5 REC, 76 YDS
- PassZion Turner 8/15, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDevontae Houston 23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKevens Clercius 2 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:20CONN +67%
Devontae Houston run for 17 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q4 1:10CONN +19%
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27
- Q3 5:18CONN +14%
Aaron Turner 5 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q4 8:26CONN +13%
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 40 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST down
- Q2 9:33FRES +12%
George Caratan punt for 52 yds, Nikko Remigio returns for 87 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)
- Q3 12:50FRES +11%
Jordan Mims 1 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. UConn?
Fresno State 14, UConn 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 187 | Total yards | 313 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 130 |
| 30 | Rushing yards | 183 |
| 14 | First downs | 20 |
| 0-7 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 16/22 | Comp/Att | 8/16 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-75 | Penalties | 8-68 |
| 23:24 | Possession | 36:36 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:21 FRES punt on 4th & 1 at FRES 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:20CONNDevontae Houston 17 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–19
- Q3 5:18CONNAaron Turner 5 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q3 12:50FRESJordan Mims 1 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)14–6
- Q2 4:51CONNNoe Ruelas 28 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 9:33FRESNikko Remigio 87 Yd Punt Return (Abraham Montano Kick)7–3
- Q1 4:06CONNNoe Ruelas 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 999, FRES Elo 1517 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN +18.3 (13% to win) — 5.2 points clear of CONN's market line of +23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #4 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| FRES | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.4 (#45) | CORE overall | -13.6 (#109) |
| +2 / -4 | offense / defense | -6 / +7 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 1.34 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →