Huskie StadiumConference gameClosing line: WMU +-7 · WMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
| NIU | 10 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
Team stats
WMUthis game · better side highlightedNIU
393
Total yards
25232
Passing yards
78361
Rushing yards
17425
First downs
137-11 · 64%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NIU 1289
WMU 1378
Projected spread
NIU +1.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WMU
53% to win
Market spread
NIU +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
5.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
47%
NIU · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1289, WMU Elo 1378) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU +1.2 (47% to win) — 5.8 points of value on NIU versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NIU (top)WMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NIU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge WMU.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge NIU.
- NIU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge NIU.
Drive-by-drive
WMU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NIU 4/11 scoring drives
NIUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WMUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 8Q1
NIUFG4 pl, -2 yds· opp 19Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois?
Western Michigan 35, Northern Illinois 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.