Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WMUTeam statsNIU
- Q4 4:25NIURickey Taylor Jr. 18 Yd pass from Brady Davidson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–19
- Q4 7:19WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)35–13
- Q4 9:46WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)28–13
- Q3 8:11WMUBroc Lowry 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)21–13
- Q2 0:40WMUJalen Buckley 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–13
- Q2 6:13WMUBroc Lowry 18 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–13
- Q2 11:45NIUAndrew Glass 41 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 9:13NIUAndrew Glass 39 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:21NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 43 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.3 vs 3rd & 3.8
- PassBroc Lowry 5/9, 32 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJalen Buckley 24 CAR, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChristian Leary 2 REC, 17 YDS
- PassBrady Davidson 5/8, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChavon Wright 21 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecRickey Taylor Jr. 3 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:11WMU +23%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 8 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 13:51NIU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush left for 4 yards gain to the NIU45 (#20 K.Fisher)
- Q4 9:46WMU +7%
#6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 2:11WMU +7%
Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU30 (#22 J.Beeler)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois?
Western Michigan 35, Northern Illinois 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
| WMU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 393 | Total yards | 252 |
| 32 | Passing yards | 78 |
| 361 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 25 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-11 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 5/9 | Comp/Att | 6/15 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-17 | Penalties | 2-19 |
| 33:49 | Possession | 26:11 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:58 NIU go for it on 4th & 8 at NIU 27. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:25NIURickey Taylor Jr. 18 Yd pass from Brady Davidson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–19
- Q4 7:19WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)35–13
- Q4 9:46WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)28–13
- Q3 8:11WMUBroc Lowry 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)21–13
- Q2 0:40WMUJalen Buckley 8 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–13
- Q2 6:13WMUBroc Lowry 18 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–13
- Q2 11:45NIUAndrew Glass 41 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 9:13NIUAndrew Glass 39 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:21NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 43 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1289, WMU Elo 1378 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU +1.2 (48% to win) — 5.8 points clear of NIU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWestern Michigan leads 27–23 · 36% have been one-possession games
| WMU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 (#62) | CORE overall | -22.4 (#129) |
| -5 / -7 | offense / defense | -15 / +8 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 1.60 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -19 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →