Wed, Nov 19, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
| NIU | 10 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1289, WMU Elo 1378) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU +1.2 (47% to win) — 5.8 points of value on NIU versus the market line of +7.
WMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Western Michigan 35, Northern Illinois 19.
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 43 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:21, 1ST DOWN #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro)
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Davidson pass complete short right to #3 R.Taylor Jr. caught at WMU43, for 14 yards to the WMU39 (#5 A.Wofford), 1ST DOWN
(00:32) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #0 T.Williams caught at NIU25, for 2 yards to the NIU25 (#32 Q.Urwiler), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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