Fri, Oct 3, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 0 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 27 |
| DEL | 7 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DEL Elo 1501, WKU Elo 1414) plus home-field advantage. That projects DEL -5.9 (67% to win) — 3.4 points of value on DEL versus the market line of -2.5.
WKU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Western Kentucky 27, Delaware 24.
No — the model picked DEL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had DEL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Nick Minicucci pass intercepted Koron Hayward return for 25 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
Nick Minicucci run for 4 yds Nick Minicucci fumbled, recovered by WKU Elin Jones
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 33 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST down
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