Western Kentucky vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsDEL
- Q4 9:54DELNick Minicucci 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)27–24
- Q3 0:38WKUGeorge Hart III 5 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)27–17
- Q3 7:20WKUKoron Hayward 25 Yd Interception Return (John Cannon Kick)20–17
- Q3 8:01WKUJohn Cannon 43 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 0:00DELNick Minicucci 1 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)10–17
- Q2 1:55WKUK.D. Hutchinson 5 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)10–10
- Q2 7:55DELNate Reed 23 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 14:55WKUJohn Cannon 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:36DELNick Minicucci 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DEL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassMaverick McIvor 23/31, 230 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMaverick McIvor 6 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecMatthew Henry 4 REC, 99 YDS
- PassNick Minicucci 28/45, 314 YDS, 1 INT
- RushNick Minicucci 12 CAR, 55 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJake Thaw 4 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:54WKU +38%
Cole Maynard punt for 52 yds, Kyre Duplessis returns for no gain to the DEL 5
- Q4 9:54DEL +28%
Nick Minicucci run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
- Q3 0:38WKU +26%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to George Hart III for 5 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 7:20WKU +26%
Nick Minicucci pass intercepted Koron Hayward return for 25 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q4 0:00WKU +25%
Nate Reed 42 yd FG MISSED
- Q2 1:55WKU +21%
K.D. Hutchinson run for 5 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Delaware?
Western Kentucky 27, Delaware 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DEL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 338 | Total yards | 435 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 314 |
| 108 | Rushing yards | 121 |
| 16 | First downs | 27 |
| 9-14 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 23/31 | Comp/Att | 28/46 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-90 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 27:31 | Possession | 32:29 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:54DELNick Minicucci 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)27–24
- Q3 0:38WKUGeorge Hart III 5 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)27–17
- Q3 7:20WKUKoron Hayward 25 Yd Interception Return (John Cannon Kick)20–17
- Q3 8:01WKUJohn Cannon 43 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 0:00DELNick Minicucci 1 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)10–17
- Q2 1:55WKUK.D. Hutchinson 5 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)10–10
- Q2 7:55DELNate Reed 23 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 14:55WKUJohn Cannon 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:36DELNick Minicucci 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DEL Elo 1501, WKU Elo 1414 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DEL -5.9 (66% to win) — 3.4 points clear of DEL's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#83) | CORE overall | -15.0 (#107) |
| -6 / +0 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →