Delaware StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 0 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 27 |
| DEL | 7 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
DEL 1501
WKU 1414
Projected spread
DEL -5.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
DEL
67% to win
Market spread
DEL -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
DEL
3.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
67%
DEL · market 55%
Our model blends Elo ratings (DEL Elo 1501, WKU Elo 1414) plus home-field advantage. That projects DEL -5.9 (67% to win) — 3.4 points of value on DEL versus the market line of -2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
DEL (top)WKU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DEL 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. DEL rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge DEL.
- DEL pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge DEL.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. DEL pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge DEL.
Drive-by-drive
WKU 4/8 scoring drives← own end zone →DEL 5/10 scoring drives
DELTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WKUFUM8 pl, 44 yds· own 17Q1
DELPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 36Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
WKU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Delaware?
Western Kentucky 27, Delaware 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DEL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had DEL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.