| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| BYU | 14 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BYU Elo 1702, WVU Elo 1341) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -16.8 (89% to win) — 2.7 points of value on WVU versus the market line of -19.5.
BYU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
West Virginia 24, BYU 38.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 54 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 85 yds to the WVU 4 for a 1ST down
Bear Bachmeier pass intercepted Chase Wilson return for 19 yds to the WVU 37
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