West Virginia vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsBYU
- Q4 1:14WVUCam Vaughn 29 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)24–38
- Q4 8:50BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)17–38
- Q3 0:37WVUKhalil Wilkins 6 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)17–31
- Q3 6:53BYUWill Ferrin 37 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 0:19BYUBear Bachmeier 2 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:58WVUDiore Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:17BYULJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)3–21
- Q2 14:15WVUKade Hensley 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:41BYUParker Kingston 54 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:14BYUParker Kingston 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKhalil Wilkins 7/15, 81 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKhalil Wilkins 23 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCam Vaughn 2 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBear Bachmeier 18/25, 351 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLJ Martin 21 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChase Roberts 4 REC, 161 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:50BYU +8%
Bear Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 45
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. BYU?
West Virginia 24, BYU 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| WVU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 291 | Total yards | 516 |
| 135 | Passing yards | 351 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 18 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 10/18 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 14.0 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-26 | Penalties | 10-67 |
| 27:50 | Possession | 32:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:07 WVU punt on 4th & 3 at WVU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:14WVUCam Vaughn 29 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)24–38
- Q4 8:50BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)17–38
- Q3 0:37WVUKhalil Wilkins 6 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)17–31
- Q3 6:53BYUWill Ferrin 37 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 0:19BYUBear Bachmeier 2 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:58WVUDiore Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:17BYULJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)3–21
- Q2 14:15WVUKade Hensley 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:41BYUParker Kingston 54 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:14BYUParker Kingston 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1702, WVU Elo 1341 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -16.8 (86% to win) — 2.7 points clear of WVU's market line of -19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WVU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.6 (#98) | CORE overall | +18.0 (#20) |
| -11 / -1 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 1.51 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →